After a series of prior increases, the International Grains Council has trimmed its 2025-26 world grains production estimate - although it remains record large.
In its monthly Grain Market Report released on Thursday, the IGC dropped its total grains production estimate (wheat and coarse grains) to 2.46 billion tonnes, down 1 million from January but 5.7% higher than a year ago.
The February reduction primarily reflects a revised barley estimate, with minor, near-offsetting changes for other crops, the IGC said.
Prior to February, the IGC had raised its 2025-26 total grains production estimate for five straight months amid monster harvests around the globe, with January’s month-over-month hike a hefty 31 million tonnes.
Along with the cut in the production estimate, the IGC also lowered its global grains consumption estimate by 1 million tonnes from last month, down to 2.415 billion. However, factoring in smaller opening stocks, the overall supply outlook is slightly tighter this month, with 2024-25 total grains ending stocks estimated at 631 million tonnes. That’s down 3 million from January but still above the previous year’s 586 million.
The IGC left its 2025-26 world wheat production estimate steady from January at 842 million, versus 801 million a year earlier, but lowered ending stocks by 1 million tonnes to 282 million, up from 263 million the previous year.
World corn production and ending stocks were left unchanged on the month at 1.313 billion and 305 million tonnes, compared to 1.239 billion and 289 million a year earlier.
World soybean production for 2025-26 was revised 1 million tonnes higher from January to 428 million – down 1 million from 2024-25 – with ending stocks up 2 million to 79 million, compared to 82 million in 2024-25.
Looking ahead to the 2026-27 crop year, the IGC said that although forecasts remain tentative, the initial global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter, with expectations for a reduced harvest and further consumption gains.
Given initial planted area assumptions and, assuming trend yields, next season's corn crop may also dip year on year, the IGC added.
